MLB Secondary Market Recap (April 6-12, 2015)
The Arizona Diamondbacks recovered from a bad MLB Opening Day April 6, 2015, where the team coughed up a bad secondary market price line of $34 ARP – $18 GIP against the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. Some of this can be explained away by the annual flooding of free tickets during Spring Training throughout Arizona, which dampens the marketplace overall. However, The Diamondbacks’ April 7-8 games against the Giants managed to push up demand slightly against a small amount of inventory, getting higher than $23 GIP on each of the next two contests.
The highest watermark for the Diamondbacks was April 10, when the Los Angeles Dodgers came to town. This can be explained as a two-fold treat, as the Dodgers are only six hours away from Phoenix, and a lot of former L.A. residents likely have relocated to Arizona for retirement tax purposes. The resale market on April 10 held a $114 ARP – $91 GIP – $280,042 MCAP, followed by two “down to earth” secondary offerings on April 11-12, where demand stabilized, going returning to an ARP in the low-$40s and low-$20s GIP for the next two games against the Dodgers.
Limited only to three games at home, the Baltimore Orioles had a $19.29 GIP for April 10-11 against a fair ARP. The Orioles hit a $66.57 ARP on April 10, but slid down into the mid-$50s for the remaining two games of the series, crunching a $140k MCAP on April 10 down to a $64k by April 12.
Braves Hit An MLB High Note With ARP
The Atlanta Braves welcomed in division rival, The New York Mets, and soared to a $168.43 ARP – $121.14 GIP for their Opening Day. The rest of the weekend saw an ARP diminish ($34.14 – April 11 and $23.86 – April 12), along with a horrid GIP. By the end of the weekend, The Mets-Braves April 12 GIP was a putrid $6.29.
After playing their initial Opening Day with long lines to the bathroom and a Sunday Night baseball contest, the Chicago Cubs hosted the St. Louis Cardinals April 7-8, but with less resale fanfare. A $37.14 ARP against 1,811 SVG held a $18 GIP ($94,667 MCAP) on April 7. But it got worse on April 8, when the ARP dropped to $29.43, with a GIP of $13.57 greeting online resale customers.
The Cleveland Indians held a stable, steady resale market for their three game homestand against the Detroit Tigers. All ARPs were in the mid-$40s – all GIPs were higher than $22 with limited inventory available. Not everything has to be a smash hit on the secondary, but when the GIP is higher than the service charge per ticket purchased, that’s a good thing.
Pittsburgh Unrivaled By Reds On Secondary
The rivalry against the Pittsburgh Pirates for the Cincinnati Reds might as well be meaningless to secondary market customers. GIPs were horrendously low (below $6 each game), especially when considering that this was the opening series for the Reds at home. Comparatively, when the St. Louis Cardinals came to town, the resale market jumped up quite a bit, recovering in as many ways as possible, showcasing off a $55.29 GIP against a $66.14 ARP – 1,001 SVG on April 10. While the ARP trended downward the next two games, it was nothing like when the Pirates came to town in the week earlier, where the ARP sank to $17.29 and a $4 GIP (April 8).
The Colorado Rockies sported a great Opening Day market of $128.86 ARP – $100.29 GIP against 2,175 SVG, transforming to a $351,286 MCAP. The ARP for the next games held into the mid-$40s, while the GIP steadied at around $28.
Heck of an Opening Day when the GIP stands at $6.43 with a $25 ARP against a division rival. Yet this is exactly what the Chicago White Sox faced April 10 when welcoming Minnesota into town. The GIP dropped lower to $3.86 on April 11 with a $18.14 ARP, only recovering to $11 April 12. At no point did the ARP raise beyond $27 throughout the three game homestand. This is a classic case of starting off baseball in a cold-weather city, where fans and the secondary are not in demand until a month later.
Like Chicago, as with Detroit, as The Motor City Kitties (The Detroit Tigers) held a $7.86 GIP on Opening Day, against a $21.57 ARP – 2,050 SVG on April 6. Two days later, when things either warmed up or improved, the resale market shot up for the second game of the Tigers’ series against The Twins, hitting a $67.43 ARP – $36 GIP – 1,796 SVG. Yet, April 9 proved only too familiar, as the GIP sunk again to $9.43 on the secondary.
The Houston Astros’ three game dance with the Cleveland Indians showed a decent secondary, settling in the mid-$40s ARP for two of its contests, and hitting a $109 ARP, coupled with a $14.57 GIP against 1,456 SVG on April 8. This means that there were likely a lot more premium tickets going up for auction, pushing up the ARP, even though the GIP showcased many more bucket seats at a drastically lower value. One can only guess how low those bucket seats averaged on their own, had the premium product not inflated its overall market.
Kansas City Royals Get Boost From 2014 Good Feelings
The Chicago White Sox helped ignite a fantastic secondary offering the 2015 Kansas City Royals during their Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium April 6. The resale showed off a $118.71 ARP – $62.57 GIP against 3,044 SVG. What was troubling to see was a mass of ticket dumping on April 8 (8,437 SVG) and April 9 (6,958 SVG). This deflated the entire secondary, as the listings basically crushed all demand, showcasing a $42.71 ARP – $22 GIP. This can only be explained as a ticket dump, as both the MCAP for April 6 ($498k) and April 8 ($454k) are relatively similar despite less than 50% of the ticket listings available for April 6.
The Kansas City Royals returned to the scene of the 2014 playoffs, where they ousted the LA Angels to head to the World Series. KC launched the 2015 Angels’ Opening Day April 10 with a $87 ARP – $134.79 MLP – $65.71 GIP against 2,035 SVG. Of course, April 11 showed off a 1,369 SVG and a $6.14 GIP to put a damper on the affair, until April 12, where the final game of the series recovered with a respectable ARP of $36.29 – $30.19 GIP against limited seat inventory at 573 SVG.
The San Diego Padres, with half of their team roster filled with former Dodgers, visited Chavez Ravine for Opening Day against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the only team where the majority of their fans cannot view their games on TV locally. The April 6 start was no grand illusion of demand, with a 307 SVG – $33.71 ARP – $20 GIP. The April 8 contest showed off the actual demand structure of the secondary, hitting a $31.29 ARP – $14.29 GIP against 2,229 SVG. It was frankly a flat, unresponsive secondary available due to most L.A. fans actually attending their games, but more likely leaving after the 6th inning to beat traffic.
The Milwaukee Brewers played six home games to start the 2015 Major League Baseball Season. Their Opening Day crushed it on the secondary, with a 3,271 SVG against $186.14 ARP – $134.86 GIP ($760k MCAP). Throughout the first four games of the Brewers’ homestand, the team had respectable numbers; Two games in the mid-$30s ARP, along with April 10 where the ARP hit $131.86 – $110.86 GIP to welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Then, April 11-12 happened for the Brewers’ resale market. Both ARPs hovered at $18 against a 2,200 SVG with GIPs hitting below $5.30 for both games. The Brew Crew basically got 86’d by the end of the series.
Miami Sees Small GIPs Emerging
The Miami Marlins went from super hot to morbidly cold, on the resale market to open up the 2015 season with six games at home. A huge 3,889 SVG weighed down the Opening Day resale action, causing the ARP to hit $58.14 with a $30 GIP against the Atlanta Braves. The Tampa Bay Rays contest April 11 swelled the marketplace to a $96.71 ARP – $63.43 GIP – $295k MCAP, but that wasn’t enough to get away from some of the lowest GIPs of the week, including a $4.86 offering April 7.
The New York Yankees Opening Day began with two division rivals at home during a six game series. April 6 was a $108 ARP – $47.57 GIP against 759 SVG. The trouble being that Yankee Stadium is typically five times higher than most stadiums, thus the inventory and offering may have been earmarked as a down-market offering. By comparison, the 619 SVG offering April 11 against arch-rival Boston yielded a $40.14 ARP – $34.29 GIP.
The Oakland Athletics continue their Moneyball game without a lot of offerings on the secondary. A lot of resellers don’t take the chance on a place like O.co because it is massive in its inventory availability on the primary, even when the team is doing well. Thus the SVG is rarely higher than 700-800. The Athletics held a respectable average throughout the six games to open up the 2015 season, only once letting the GIP dip below $18.
The Philadelphia Phillies turned in six home games to begin the 2015 Major League Baseball Season, sparking only a high resale April 9 with a $120.57 ARP – $86.86 GIP – $330,991 MCAP against 2,219 SVG. For the rest of the series, it was mid-$30s ARP and a GIP that was either high or down into the teens. Not a good sign for the demand structure on the secondary market, although the inventory for April 8 was lower than usual.
The Seattle Mariners sported a three-game series to open up their season. Hitting a $123.57 ARP – $82.29 GIP – 2,839 SVG on April 6 was a great start. While the expected ARP and GIP dipped during the next two games against the LA Angels, neither was a horror show, a much different story than the Mariners’ offense.
The San Diego Padres got a 4-game set against the San Francisco Giants, and held a fair ARP in the mid-$30s, yet showed off a GIP average that stung, all in the mid-teens. Not a good sign as the majority of inventory rotted on the secondary market.
Battle of Texas Doesn’t Enrich Secondary
When MLB sets up these “rivalry” contests with in-state teams, they don’t consider the lack of demand. Especially on the secondary. Aside from Opening Day for the Texas Rangers, the team’s three games to start the season against the Houston Astros proved to be nothing more than a wash. The ARP only jumped to $49.43 on April 11, its’ high water mark, but mainly was much lower, and the GIP hit right below $21 twice.
Baltimore’s visit to the Tampa Bay Rays yielded a high $114.29 ARP, but a $17 GIP with 2,291 SVG sitting on the market. That dropped even further on April 7, when the GIP lessened to $10.86 with a $30.14 ARP against 3,071 SVG. While the April 8 contest showed signs of recovery with a $55.43 GIP, the majority of fans buying from the secondary actually paid a far less $38.14 ARP to get in, with a $136.71 MLP not realized or anywhere close to what demand truly was for the product being offered.
The New York Mets-Washington Nationals series showed a down-Opening Day secondary of $34.43 ARP – $18.57 GIP against 1,214 SVG. This was worsened only two days later, when the GIP dropped to $8.29 against a $24.29 ARP with 1,242 SVG on the marketplace.
Data: SeatGeek – Glossary of Secondary Market: Click here